MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Gerardo Carrillo

AZ·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.76 sits 0.34 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Carrillo is a buy-low — the ERA hides a real arm

The ERA sits at 4.15, and it is being dragged there by a BABIP-against of .333 against a league average of .295. That gap is not a skill problem: BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 42. Strip the noise out and his xERA is 3.76 — 0.34 below league average, which is the arm the surface line is burying. The stuff backs it up. His fastball is averaging 96.9 mph, well above the 94.0 league mark, and the velocity has been stepping up across the sample, so this is not a soft-tosser getting hit. He strikes out 25.9% of batters against a 22.0% league rate. The skill is real; the ERA is not. Buy low. The 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP ROS line is a deep-league stash only — buy the dip before the surface corrects.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.76 sits 0.34 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.4%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA3.76
3.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
42 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.3%
23.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
316 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→25.5%signal0 K — K% 25.9% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.76noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.76 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 19.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 20% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.83 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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