week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Emilio Pagán
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.57); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 5–9
Pagán is a hold — league-average profile, nothing to push either way.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 14 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.1%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.57)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed57.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.1%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
xERA4.57
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.47vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
ERA5.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
87 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +2.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.2% norm — expect it to fall.
87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
348 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→26.8%signal14 K — K% 24.1% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 26.8% over ~16 remaining IP.
xERA 4.57noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.57 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)5-9 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep13 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.