week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Emilio Pagán
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Pagán is a hold — league average arm, nothing unstable to exploit.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.43 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.9%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
- Walk %6.3%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 TBF
ERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
174 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
174 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.245
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
174 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
174 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
675 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→27.0%signal0 K — K% 25.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 27.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.