week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Samy Natera Jr.
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Natera is a hold — the strikeouts are loud, the run prevention is not
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.51)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.246
lg avg .315 ▼−.069vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
xERA2.51
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.59vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
31.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.6%vs his norm —
131 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
580 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 36.6%→34.1%signal0 K — K% 36.6% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 34.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.