week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Samy Natera Jr.
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.35); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Natera is a hold — the early sample says league average, nothing more.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 8 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.239
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
xERA2.35
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.75vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
ERA2.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %38.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.3%vs his norm —
120 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
531 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 38.3%→35.4%signal8 K — K% 38.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 35.4% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 2.35noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.35 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.