Michael King
King is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck
His ERA is 3.21, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .260, 35 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 514 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.42, a full run above what the box score shows, and that expected number has been stepping up across the sample. There is no elite stuff story underneath: he strikes out 21% of batters, below league average, and walks 9.2%, above it. His hard-hit rate allowed of 32.7% against a 40% league average is the one thing keeping his expected ERA from being worse than it is — but it is not enough to rescue him when the bounces normalize. The ERA is on the scoreboard; the expected ERA is the truth. Sell high. The 0 K / 4.31 ERA / 1.31 WHIP rest-of-season line says regression already knows the address — a drop-tier sell, not a hold.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
- Walk %9.2%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.42 is 1.21 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.