MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Michael King
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Michael King

SD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.14 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 61ERA 4.39WHIP 1.34W 2–5SV 0

King is a sell-high — ERA flattered by suppressed BABIP-against.

His ERA sits at 3.41, but the underlying metrics point north. The number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .251, 44 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 299 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.55, more than a run higher than the surface. His xwOBA allowed of .329 is above the league average of .315, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 33.4%, which is below league — but his barrel rate allowed is right at league average. His strikeout rate is slightly below league, and his walk rate is above. The xERA trajectory has been stepping up across the sample, confirming that regression is baked in. Sell high. 61 K and a 4.39 ERA make this a streaming-only window — sell before the WHIP climbs.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−5.8% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
  • Walk %9.7%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.14 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
299 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
299 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
xERA4.55
4.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
ERA3.41
3.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
108.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −5.8% ▼
443 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
443 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
.251*
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
299 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1731 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→22.6%signal61 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 22.6% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 4.55signal4.39 ERA — xERA 4.55 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop61 K ROS, 4.39 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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