week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Michael King
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.35 is 1.35 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 4.26WHIP 1.32W 1–1SV 0
King is a sell-high — his ERA is 462 balls in play of luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
- Walk %9.6%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.35 is 1.35 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
463 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
463 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
686 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —
686 / 200 TBF
ERA3.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
168 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −5.6% ▼
686 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
686 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
463 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
686 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
686 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2700 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.0%→22.3%signal13 K — K% 21.0% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 22.3% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.271 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 4.26 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.