week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Michael King
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
King is a sell-high — his ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.97 is 0.79 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
lg avg .315 .000trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 200 TBF
xERA3.97
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.13trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 200 TBF
ERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92too early to trust
NOISE68 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044too early to trust
NOISE173 / 800 BIP