week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Graham Ashcraft
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.78); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.71WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0–0
Ashcraft is a hold — the skill and the surface both sit near league.
ROS projects K 32 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—+8.2% ▲vs his ~18.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.78)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +8.2% ▲
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm +8.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.2% norm — expect it to fall.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
601 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→21.8%signal0 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~18.3% → projected 21.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78noise3.71 ERA — xERA 3.78 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 16.3% + contactnoise1.27 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.63 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.