week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Graham Ashcraft
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.38); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 17ERA 3.68WHIP 1.26W 0–1SV 0–1
Ashcraft is a hold — near-average skill with no luck story.
ROS projects K 32 YTD → 17 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.4%—+11.1% ▲vs his ~18.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
109 / 200 TBF
xERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
109 / 200 TBF
ERA3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +11.1% ▲
109 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm +6.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.2% norm — expect it to fall.
109 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
109 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
109 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
450 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→22.2%signal17 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~18.3% → projected 22.2% over ~19 remaining…
xERA 3.38noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.38 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 14.7% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.