week 10
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
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Will Warren
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Warren is a buy — his xERA is stable and elite.
His expected ERA is 3.33, which is 0.77 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA might be higher, but the gap is not luck — his BABIP-against is not suppressed. The skill metrics tell the story: he strikes out 25.8% of batters, above the league 22.0%, and his walk rate is 7.0%, below the league 8.0%. He also limits hard contact: his barrel rate allowed is 6.6%, below the league 8.0%. His xwOBA allowed is .290, also below league. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample, showing genuine improvement. There is no luck propping up the surface; the run prevention is earned. Buy.
Buy
high0.83
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.33, 0.77 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 200 TBF
xERA3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 200 TBF
ERA3.22
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88too early to trust
NOISE64.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000too early to trust
NOISE181 / 800 BIP