week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Will Warren
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 65ERA 4.31WHIP 1.33W 4–9SV 0
Warren is a sell — his xERA is above league and climbing.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.4%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~24.7% career norm
- Walk %7.7%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
295 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
295 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
429 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —
429 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
98.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
429 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
429 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
295 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
429 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
429 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
1661 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.4%→23.1%signal65 K — K% 22.4% (signal) lifted to career ~24.7% → projected 23.1% over ~57 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42signal4.31 ERA — xERA 4.42 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop65 K ROS, 4.31 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.