week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Will Warren
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.35); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.26WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0
Warren is a hold — his expected ERA tracks the league exactly.
ROS projects K 70 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 3.22 YTD → 4.26 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.34 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.3%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~24.7% career norm
- Walk %8.0%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
459 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
459 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
677 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —
677 / 200 TBF
ERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
677 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
677 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
459 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
677 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
677 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
2642 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→23.6%signal0 K — K% 23.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.7% → projected 23.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.307 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.26 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.