Is Will Warren a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Will Warren's rest-of-season outlook?

4.16 ERA hides 4.53 xERA and .313 BABIP help

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Will Warren

NYY·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 4.53 +0.43 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.68

ROSK 14ERA 4.38WHIP 1.34W 1–2SV 0

Warren is a sell — his expected ERA is above league

His expected ERA is 4.53, which is .43 above the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 594 batters faced is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. That is the skill level, not a bad stretch. The harder contact backs it up: opponents are hitting the ball hard 44.4% of the time, against a league average of 40.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed is .327, .012 above league. His BABIP-against sits near league average, so the runs on his line are not the product of bad luck that will turn. He strikes out 22.4% of batters, essentially league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.8% is below the league's 11.0%. The expected ERA has been stepping up, not down, as the season has gone on. There is no hidden skill here. Sell. 14 K and a 4.38 ERA ROS is streaming-only waiver fodder — drop him, because the skill simply isn't there.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %22.4%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~24.7% career norm
Walk %7.9%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.53 +0.43 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —

408 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —

408 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.327

lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —

594 / 200 TBF

xERA4.53

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.43vs his norm —

594 / 200 TBF

ERA4.16

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

136.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %22.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −2.3% ▼

594 / 70 TBF

Walk %7.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼

594 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.313

lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

408 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

594 / 60 TBF

Chase %28.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

594 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.7 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —

2318 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 22.4%→23.0%signal14 K — K% 22.4% (signal) lifted to career ~24.7% → projected 23.0% over ~13 remaining IP.

xERA 4.53signal4.38 ERA — xERA 4.53 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.

BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop14 K ROS, 4.38 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons