MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Carson Whisenhunt

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable, the 6.49 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.99 is +1.89 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Whisenhunt is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is short

His BABIP-against is .324 against a league average of .295, and that gap is why his 6.49 ERA reads worse than his actual pitching. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 116, so the elevated number is luck and will move. But strip the luck out and the expected ERA is 5.99, nearly two runs above the league average of 4.10 — the level he regresses to is below average, not a hidden ace. His strikeout rate is the tell: 15.9% against a 22.0% league average, stable across 164 batters faced and stepping down. A 92.8 mph fastball and 44.8% hard-hit allowed do not point to a breakout either. He is a back-end arm whose surface is inflated, not a buy; the panic and the optimism are both wrong. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~14.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — the 6.49 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.99 is +1.89 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
.368*
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
xERA5.99
5.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.89vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
ERA6.49
6.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.39vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.9%
norm15.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
164 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
norm12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.2% norm — expect it to fall.
164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
.324*
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
617 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.9%→15.3%signal0 K — K% 15.9% (signal) tempered to career ~14.9% → projected 15.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.99noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.99 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 11 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.70 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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