MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Carson Whisenhunt

SF·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable, the 6.49 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.95 is +1.85 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 6ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 1–1SV 0

Whisenhunt is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill still falls short

His 6.49 ERA reads like a disaster, but the batted-ball luck behind it is not reliable yet: his BABIP-against is .324 against a league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to settle. He has 116. Strip that out and his expected ERA is 5.95 — still 1.85 runs above league average. That is the real problem. His strikeout rate is 15.9%, well below the league's 22%, and it is stable at 164 batters faced. He is not missing bats, and that caps how much the surface line can improve. The panic is overdone; the optimism is not earned. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~14.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — the 6.49 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.95 is +1.85 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
.368*
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
xERA5.95
5.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.85vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
ERA6.49
6.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.39vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.9%
norm15.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
164 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.8%
norm12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.2% norm — expect it to fall.
164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
.324*
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
617 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.9%→15.3%signal6 K — K% 15.9% (signal) tempered to career ~14.9% → projected 15.3% over ~11 remaining IP.
xERA 5.95noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 11 IP.
BB% 12.8% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.70 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop6 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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