week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Franco Aleman
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.24); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 2ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Aleman is a hold — real stuff, no gap to trade either way.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 2 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.24)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
50 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 TBF
xERA3.24
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 TBF
ERA3.26
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
86 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.354
lg avg .295 ▲+.059vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
86 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
86 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
364 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→27.1%signal2 K — K% 27.9% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 27.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.24noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.24 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 11.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.