week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Trent Thornton
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.185 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.99 is 2.51 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Thornton is a sell-high — his ERA is a BABIP mirage.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %11.8%—−9.9% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.185 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.99 is 2.51 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 200 TBF
xERA4.99
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.89vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 200 TBF
ERA2.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm −9.9% ▼
110 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
110 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.185
lg avg .295 ▼−.110vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
407 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.8%→18.2%signal14 K — K% 11.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.2% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 4.99noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.99 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 9.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.