MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trent Thornton
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Trent Thornton

CHC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.95 is 1.60 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Thornton is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 3.35, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .243, more than 50 points below the league average of .295, across 145 balls in play — far short of the roughly 800 needed to trust it. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.95, a run and a half above what the box score shows, and that is the regression waiting. The strikeout rate is the other problem: 15.8%, well below the 22% league average, and down from his 21.7% career baseline. He misses fewer bats than he used to, which caps how good this can get even when the bounces go his way. The surface is flattering him. Sell high. Sell into 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP now — a deep-league trade window, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.8%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.95 is 1.60 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
believable since Jun 1444.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
4.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
ERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
48.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.8%
norm15.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
196 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
196 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
713 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.8%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 15.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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