MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trent Thornton
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Trent Thornton

CHC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.08 is 1.58 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 3WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0

Thornton is a sell-high — the ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.

His ERA is 3.50, half a run better than league average, and the number holding it there will not hold. His BABIP-against is .244, 51 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 140 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 5.08, a run and a half worse than what the box score shows. He strikes out 15.3% of batters, well below the league average of 22.0%, and that number is stable — and it is on the way down, sitting under his 21.7% career baseline. Balls in play against him are hard-hit at 44.6%, above league. There is no bat-missing skill here to justify the surface line. Sell high. With 3 K and a 3.70 ERA ROS, this is a deep-league sell before the inflated line corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.3%—−6.4% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.08 is 1.58 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
believable since Jun 1444.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
.344*
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
189 / 200 TBF
xERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
189 / 200 TBF
ERA3.50
3.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.3%
norm15.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm −6.4% ▼
189 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
189 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.244
.244*
lg avg .295 ▼−.051vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
693 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.3%→18.6%signal3 K — K% 15.3% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.6% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 5.08noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.08 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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