week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jefry Yan
data as of September 28, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable, the 4.87 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Yan is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill is below league.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — the 4.87 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 TBF
ERA4.87
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
96 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
96 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
96 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
367 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→26.5%signal0 K — K% 27.1% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 26.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.35 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 15.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.