MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Bibee
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tanner Bibee

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.35); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.26WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Bibee is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected ERA is 4.35 — a hair over the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact profile backs it up rather than contradicting it: 39.3% hard-hit allowed against a league rate of 40.0%, 8.4% barrels against 8.0%, and an expected wOBA allowed of .320 against .315. Nothing there is being propped up by a luck stat, and nothing is being dragged down by one. His strikeout rate of 19.0% sits below league average while his 7.1% walk rate is a touch better than league, and the two roughly cancel. The one thing worth watching is direction — the expected ERA has been stepping up across the season — but it is still sitting in the middle of the pack. There is no edge to buy here and no edge to sell. Hold. A 0 K / 4.26 ERA / 1.28 WHIP line is waiver fringe — a deep-league hold at best, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.0%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~7.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
570 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
570 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
780 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
4.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —
780 / 200 TBF
ERA4.36
4.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
norm19.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
780 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
780 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
570 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
780 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.8%
27.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
780 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
2968 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→19.9%signal0 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 19.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 69 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.26 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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