week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Tanner Bibee
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.64 is 0.74 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 54ERA 4.45WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0
Bibee is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
- Walk %7.4%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~7.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.64 is 0.74 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
334 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
334 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
xERA4.64
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.54vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
ERA3.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
457 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
457 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
334 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1751 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→20.3%signal54 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 20.3% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 4.64signal4.45 ERA — xERA 4.64 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 69 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.273 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop54 K ROS, 4.45 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.