week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Nick Mears
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.27); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 31ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Mears is a hold — league-average with little data to go on.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.1%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~24.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.27)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.9%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.382
lg avg .315 ▲+.067vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
xERA6.27
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.17vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
83 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +2.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.5% norm — expect it to fall.
83 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→22.3%signal31 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~24.0% → projected 22.3% over ~33 remaining IP.
xERA 6.27noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.27 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 13.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.66 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.