week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
DL Hall
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.42 is 1.51 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.179 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.42WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0
Hall is a sell-high — the 1.91 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.6%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~23.4% career norm
- Walk %14.5%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~11.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.179 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.42 is 1.51 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
ERA1.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
241 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
241 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.179
lg avg .295 ▼−.116vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
997 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.6%→25.2%signal0 K — K% 26.6% (signal) tempered to career ~23.4% → projected 25.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42signal3.42 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.42 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 14.5% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.