week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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DL Hall
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Hall is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
DL Hall's ERA sits at 2.20, but that number is living on borrowed time. The key driver is his BABIP-against of .197, 98 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against requires roughly 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has only 62, so that suppressed number is pure luck. His expected ERA is 3.86, a 1.66-run gap that signals regression once batted-ball luck normalizes. His strikeout rate of 26.3% is above league average, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are also better than average — there is some skill here. But a .197 BABIP-against is not sustainable, and when it regresses, the ERA will climb. This is a sell-high moment before the market catches on.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.86 is 1.66 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004too early to trust
NOISE118 / 200 TBF
xERA3.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24too early to trust
NOISE118 / 200 TBF
ERA2.20
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.90too early to trust
NOISE28.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL118 / 70 TBF
Walk %20.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+12.3%too early to trust
NOISE118 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.197
lg avg .295 ▼−.098too early to trust
NOISE62 / 800 BIP