week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
DL Hall
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.178 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.10 is 0.98 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.94 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.26ERA 3.65W 0–0SV 0
Hall is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.6%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~23.4% career norm
- Walk %15.6%—+3.7% ▲vs his ~11.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.178 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.10 is 0.98 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —
112 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
112 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
199 / 200 TBF
xERA3.10
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.00vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
199 / 200 TBF
ERA2.12
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.98vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
199 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +3.7% ▲
199 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.178
lg avg .295 ▼−.117vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
112 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
199 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
199 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
840 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.6%→25.5%signal5 K — K% 27.6% (signal) tempered to career ~23.4% → projected 25.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.10noise3.65 ERA — xERA 3.10 (noise) blended 8% skill / 92% league 3.70 at 29 IP.
BB% 15.6% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 8…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.