week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Dennis Santana
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 4.34WHIP 1.37W 0–1SV 0–1
Santana is a sell — his expected ERA sits above league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.2%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~9.8% career norm
- Strikeout %21.4%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
144 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
xERA4.69
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
ERA5.36
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.26vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
48.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
215 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
215 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
215 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
215 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
821 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→21.5%signal4 K — K% 21.4% (signal) held to career ~21.7% → projected 21.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.69signal4.34 ERA — xERA 4.69 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop2 SV, 4.34 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.