Dennis Santana
Santana is a sell — the expected ERA is a run too high
His expected ERA is 4.69, .59 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 250 batters — past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing in his profile says the gap is bad luck. His strikeout rate is 19.6%, below the league's 22%, and his walk rate is 10.0%, above the league's 8%. Missing bats less and walking more than average is the wrong combination, and it shows up in the expected wOBA allowed of .331 against a .315 league average. The contact he allows is ordinary, not damaging: hard-hit rate 40.5% and barrel rate 8.1% both sit right at league marks. What is left is a pitcher walking too many and striking out too few. His expected ERA has climbed across the sample. This is the level, not a cold spell. Sell. 0 K / 4.34 ERA / 1.38 WHIP rest-of-season makes him a drop — waiver-tier arm with no strikeout upside.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.6%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~9.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.