week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Chris Roycroft
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (6.07); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Roycroft is a hold — league average with a strikeout problem.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 3.55 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.1%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~18.1% career norm
- Walk %9.5%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.07)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.370
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
179 / 200 TBF
xERA6.07
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.97vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
179 / 200 TBF
ERA6.27
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.17vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
179 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
179 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.322
lg avg .295 ▲+.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
179 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
179 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
647 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.1%→16.7%signal0 K — K% 15.1% (signal) lifted to career ~18.1% → projected 16.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.07noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.07 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.