MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · July 30, 2026
week 19
this weekHOLD
last week—

Chris Roycroft

TB·P
data as of July 30, 2026·week 19
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.356 elevated and unstable, the 8.35 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 6.31 is +2.21 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 11ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Roycroft is a hold — ugly numbers, muted upside.

Limited data: this call rests on a small sample that does not support a strong action either way. His 8.35 ERA looks terrible, but his BABIP-against is .356, 61 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 66. That gap inflates the ERA. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 6.31, still 2.21 runs above league average — a below-replacement level even when regressed. His strikeout rate is 16.1% (well below 22% league) and his barrel rate allowed is 12.1% (well above 8% league). He is not missing bats or suppressing hard contact. The ERA is noisy, but the underlying skill is also poor. Nothing to buy, nothing to sell. 11 K with 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP make Roycroft a deep-league only hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.1%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~18.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.356 elevated and unstable — the 8.35 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 6.31 is +2.21 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.9%
43.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.377
.377*
lg avg .315 ▲+.062vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
xERA6.31
6.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.21vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
ERA8.35
8.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.25vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
norm16.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
93 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.1% norm — expect it to rise.
93 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.356
.356*
lg avg .295 ▲+.061vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
333 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.1%→17.5%signal11 K — K% 16.1% (signal) lifted to career ~18.1% → projected 17.5% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 6.31noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.31 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.65 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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