MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Randy Dobnak

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 4.86 +0.76 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 0ERA 4.45WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Dobnak is a sell — the numbers are stable and they are below league.

His expected ERA is 4.86, a full .76 above the league average of 4.10, and with 321 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. There is no luck story to point to — his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not shrinking back toward the 4.10 line. The problem is that he does not miss bats: he strikes out 15.3% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his 8.7% swinging-strike rate trails the 11.0% league mark. Even his 15.3% strikeout rate, a little above his 13.8% career baseline, is trending down across the sample. A pitcher who gets this few empty swings and gives up contact this hard has a low ceiling. The box score is not hiding anything. Sell. 0 K and a 4.45 ERA / 1.40 WHIP is streaming-only at best — drop the fringe arm and move on.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.1%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~6.0% career norm
  • Strikeout %15.3%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~13.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.86 +0.76 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
242 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
242 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
xERA4.86
4.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.76vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
ERA3.51
3.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.59vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
74.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.3%
norm15.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
321 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
321 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
242 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
92.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
1264 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.3%→14.7%signal0 K — K% 15.3% (signal) tempered to career ~13.8% → projected 14.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.86signal4.45 ERA — xERA 4.86 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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