Randy Dobnak
Dobnak is a sell — the expected ERA is above league and climbing.
His expected ERA is 4.78, .68 above the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing in the luck column softens it: his BABIP-against is not carrying an inflated ERA, and his expected wOBA allowed of .335 is 20 points above league. The strikeout rate is the real problem. He strikes out 16% of batters against a league average of 22%, and that rate has been stepping down across the sample. He has six more points than his 13.8% career baseline, but below-average swing-and-miss on a 92.2 mph fastball doesn't portend a jump. He doesn't miss bats, doesn't suppress contact, and his expected ERA has been moving the wrong direction. Sell. A 4 K / 4.40 ERA / 1.39 WHIP line is a drag — drop him to the waiver wire or leave him streaming-only.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.6%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~6.0% career norm
- Strikeout %16.0%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~13.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.78 +0.68 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
5×5 ROS Outlook
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