week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Eury Pérez
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.98 is 0.42 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 3.98WHIP 1.27W 1–3SV 0
Pérez is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.6%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~27.8% career norm
- Walk %9.5%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.98 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
247 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
247 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
399 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —
399 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
98.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
399 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
399 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.252
lg avg .295 ▼−.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
247 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
399 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
399 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
1605 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.6%→27.0%signal55 K — K% 26.6% (signal) lifted to career ~27.8% → projected 27.0% over ~48 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98signal3.98 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.98 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop55 K ROS, 3.98 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.