MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Eury Pérez
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Eury Pérez

MIA·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.06); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.06WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Pérez is a hold — league-average run prevention with a live arm.

His expected ERA is 4.06, essentially the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying contact numbers back it up: his expected wOBA allowed is .310 against a league average of .315, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 39.6% is a hair under the 40% league mark. His barrel rate allowed is 10.0% versus an 8% league average, a small mark against him, but not enough to move the call. What keeps this from being a buy is the walk rate — 10.3%, above the 8% league average, and stable at his sample. The swing-and-miss is there: a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 14.7% swinging-strike rate, and 98.2 mph on the fastball. His expected ERA has stepped down across the sample, but nothing here is unstable enough to buy or sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~27.8% career norm
  • Walk %10.3%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.06)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
412 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
412 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
660 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
4.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —
660 / 200 TBF
ERA3.91
3.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
norm25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
660 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
660 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
412 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
660 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
660 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
98.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
2673 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→26.3%signal0 K — K% 25.8% (signal) lifted to career ~27.8% → projected 26.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06signal4.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.3% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.06 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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