MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Eury Pérez
week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Eury Pérez

MIA·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.96 is 0.36 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79
ROSK 110ERA 4.66WHIP 1.32W 3–6SV 0

Pérez is a sell-high — ERA is hiding the real story.

His ERA sits at 4.60, but the building blocks are getting worse. His BABIP-against is .268, 27 points below league average, and at 160 balls in play it is still noise — that gap is keeping his ERA lower than it should be. His expected ERA is 4.96, .36 higher, and has been climbing as the sample grows. The underlying contact quality is ugly: a 42.5% hard-hit rate and 15.0% barrel rate, both well above league. His xwOBA allowed is .346, .031 above league. He does strike out 27.2% of batters, but walks 10.6% — a combo that leaves little margin when the BABIP normalizes. The ERA is trending toward the xERA, not the other way. Sell high. 110 K with a 4.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP — a deep-league sell window before regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.6%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %27.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~27.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.96 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
42.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
.346*
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
xERA4.96
4.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.86vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.2%
norm27.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
265 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
norm10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
265 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
160 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.2%→27.5%signal110 K — K% 27.2% (signal) held to career ~27.8% → projected 27.5% over ~94 remaining IP.
xERA 4.96signal4.66 ERA — xERA 4.96 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep110 K ROS, 4.66 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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