week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Bryse Wilson
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.41); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Wilson is a hold — no edge, no alarm, nothing unstable.
ROS projects K 0 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.5%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~16.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.41)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %2.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm −5.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.5% norm — expect it to rise.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.355
lg avg .295 ▲+.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
558 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→18.2%signal0 K — K% 20.5% (signal) tempered to career ~16.5% → projected 18.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.41noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.41 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 2.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 2% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.