MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryne Stanek
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Ryne Stanek

STL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0–0

Stanek is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable driving it.

His expected ERA is 4.09, essentially level with the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 267 batters, past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .311 against a .315 league average, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are both near league norms. That is the picture of a pitcher who is what the numbers say he is. The one thing pulling in the other direction is the walk rate: 12.0%, four points above league. He offsets some of it with a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 14.5% swinging-strike rate, both above league, so the command problem has not wrecked the run prevention. Limited data here — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, with no baseline or trend to lean on. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.3%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~27.2% career norm
  • Walk %12.0%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
167 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
believable since Jun 47.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
167 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
ERA4.02
4.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
norm24.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
267 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.0%
norm12.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
267 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
.272*
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
98.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
1079 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→25.5%signal0 K — K% 24.3% (signal) lifted to career ~27.2% → projected 25.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 12.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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