MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryne Stanek
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Ryne Stanek

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.17); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 6ERA 4.01WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0–0

Stanek is a hold — strikeout stuff, but the walks hold him back.

His expected ERA is 4.17, essentially the league average of 4.10, and his expected wOBA allowed is .315 — dead on league — on enough batters faced for both numbers to be reliable. There is nothing unstable pulling the surface in either direction, which is why this is not a buy or a sell. The one attribute that stands out is his strikeout rate: 24.4%, a couple points above league, backed by a 14.6% swinging-strike rate. But he also walks 11.8% of batters, nearly four points above league, and that is a stable number at his sample. The stuff plays; the command gives back what the strikeouts earn. Hold. 6 K and a 4.01 ERA with 1.38 WHIP is a drop-tier arm — streaming-only, not a hold you build around.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.4%−2.8%vs his ~27.2% career norm
  • Walk %11.8%−0.3%vs his ~12.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.17)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 40.0% −3.0%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
believable since Jun 48.4%*
lg avg 8.0% +0.4%vs his norm —
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
xERA4.17
4.17*
lg avg 4.10 +0.07vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
ERA4.42
4.42*
lg avg 4.10 +0.32vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
57 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
norm24.4%*
lg avg 22.0% +2.4%vs his norm −2.8%
246 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% +3.8%vs his norm −0.3%
246 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 −.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +3.6%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 28.5% +1.6%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.1 mph
98.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +4.1 mphvs his norm —
996 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→25.6%signal6 K — K% 24.4% (signal) lifted to career ~27.2% → projected 25.6% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.17signal4.01 ERA — xERA 4.17 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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