week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
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Ryne Stanek
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Stanek is a buy-low — BABIP noise is hiding the skill.
His ERA sits at 5.56, but that number is being dragged up by a .357 BABIP-against — 62 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 58, so that gap is pure noise. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 4.43, which is much closer to the skill level. The underlying stuff is solid: he strikes out 27.8% of batters (well above the 22.0% league average) and his hard-hit rate allowed is 39.7%, essentially league average. These are stable metrics at 108 TBF and 58 BBE respectively. No career baseline or trajectory exists yet — this is an early-season call resting on the gap between a noisy BABIP-against and a real strikeout skill. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL58 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%too early to trust
NOISE58 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016too early to trust
NOISE108 / 200 TBF
xERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33too early to trust
NOISE108 / 200 TBF
ERA5.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.46too early to trust
NOISE22.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL108 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.7%too early to trust
NOISE108 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.357
lg avg .295 ▲+.062too early to trust
NOISE58 / 800 BIP