MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Blade Tidwell

SF·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.26); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.06WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0–0

Tidwell is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable.

His expected ERA is 4.26, within a rounding error of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed of .317 sits right on the league mark of .315. Nothing in his profile is being propped up or dragged down by a luck stat — his strikeout rate of 19.6% and walk rate of 8.9% are close to league, and both samples are past the point where they become trustworthy. The one thing moving: his xERA has stepped up across the sample, from better early to this 4.26. That is a drift to track, not a call to make. There is no edge to buy and no weakness to sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.6%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.9%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.26)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
37.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
xERA4.26
4.26*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.16vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
ERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.6%
norm19.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
235 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
235 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
.247*
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.6%
24.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
959 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.6%→17.9%signal0 K — K% 19.6% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 17.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.26signal4.06 ERA — xERA 4.26 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.06 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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