week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Dylan Smith
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.95); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Smith is a hold — league average, with no unstable number driving it.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 0.60 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
108 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA3.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
703 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→25.1%signal0 K — K% 25.4% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 12.4% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.