week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Dylan Smith
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.92); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Smith is a hold — the skill metrics sit at league average.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 4 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
ERA3.24
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
148 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
590 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.7%→27.0%signal4 K — K% 27.7% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 27.0% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.92 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.