MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—

Kade Morris

ATH·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.391 elevated and unstable, the 10.90 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.65 is +1.55 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Morris is a hold — ERA overstates damage, but no buy underneath.

The 10.90 ERA is doing him no favors, but it is also not the whole truth. His BABIP-against sits at .391, far above the .295 league average, and that is the number responsible for most of the damage. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has just 69. That gap is luck. But the luck-free view is not much kinder: his xERA is 5.65, a run and a half above league, and his strikeout rate of 11.2% is stable and barely half the league average. That strikeout rate is the problem — it caps his ceiling even when the bloopers stop falling. He is not a buy, and he is not a panic sell. The panic is priced in; the skill is him. Hold. Deep-league streaming-only with a 0 K / 4.10 ERA ROS line — hold, but that arm is waiver-wire filler.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.391 elevated and unstable — the 10.90 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.65 is +1.55 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
69 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
69 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
.359*
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 200 TBF
xERA5.65
5.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.55vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 200 TBF
ERA10.90
10.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+6.80vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
89 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.391
.391*
lg avg .295 ▲+.096vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
69 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
89 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
89 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
322 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.2%→13.4%signal0 K — K% 11.2% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 13.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.65noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.65 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.58 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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