week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Justin Sterner
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.54); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.24ERA 3.69W 0–1SV 0
Sterner is a hold — league average, nothing unstable underneath.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 5 ROS, WHIP 1.11 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~25.1% career norm
- Walk %7.1%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.54)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
ERA6.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
184 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
184 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
726 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.7%→23.4%signal5 K — K% 21.7% (signal) lifted to career ~25.1% → projected 23.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.54 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.