week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Justin Sterner
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.36); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 22WHIP 1.24ERA 3.68W 1–2SV 0
Sterner is a hold — league-average skill with no luck story.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 22 ROS, WHIP 1.11 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.6%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~25.1% career norm
- Walk %6.2%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.36)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA3.36
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA4.89
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
696 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→23.9%signal22 K — K% 22.6% (signal) lifted to career ~25.1% → projected 23.9% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.36noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.36 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.