week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Wilkinson
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.08); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Wilkinson is a hold — nothing here pulls either way yet.
ROS projects K 0 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.08)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
xERA3.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.02vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
ERA3.58
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
110 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.212
lg avg .295 ▼−.083vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.6 mphvs his norm —
419 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.2%→19.0%signal0 K — K% 18.2% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 19.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.08noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.08 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 2 IP.
BB% 4.5% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.