week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Wilkinson
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.72); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Wilkinson is a hold — league average, no clear signal either way.
Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.72)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.362
lg avg .315 ▲+.047vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 TBF
xERA5.72
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.62vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 200 TBF
ERA6.14
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
14.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —Strikeout % is below the ~22.0% league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
64 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
64 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.7 mphvs his norm —
243 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.5%→14.4%noise0 K — K% 12.5% (noise) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 14.4% over ~8 remaining IP.
xERA 5.72noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.72 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 2 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.