week 13
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Kyle Hart
data as of June 19, 2026·week 13
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (3.44); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 24ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Hart is a hold — limited data, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.2%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~19.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.44)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 200 TBF
xERA3.44
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −3.8% ▼
79 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
79 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.224
lg avg .295 ▼−.071vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
294 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.2%→17.9%signal24 K — K% 15.2% (signal) lifted to career ~19.0% → projected 17.9% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 3.44noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.44 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.