week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Taj Bradley
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.82); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 64ERA 3.82WHIP 1.27W 3–7SV 0
Bradley is a hold — skill near average, no luck story.
ROS projects K 65 YTD → 64 ROS, ERA 3.21 YTD → 3.82 ROS, WHIP 1.21 YTD → 1.27 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.4%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~25.3% career norm
- Walk %9.3%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
271 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
271 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
431 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —
431 / 200 TBF
ERA3.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
102.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
431 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
431 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
271 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
431 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
431 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
1745 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.4%→26.7%signal64 K — K% 27.4% (signal) tempered to career ~25.3% → projected 26.7% over ~56 remaining…
xERA 3.82signal3.82 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.82 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep64 K ROS, 3.82 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.