MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Taj Bradley
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Taj Bradley

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.98); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.98WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Bradley is a hold — average results, nothing unstable underneath

His expected ERA is 3.98 against a league average of 4.10, and with 748 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. Nothing in the profile is being held up or dragged down by a stat that will swing back. The walk rate is the one real drag: 10.2% against a league average of 8.0%, stable, and it caps how low the run prevention can go. The strikeouts partly answer for it — 27.4% against 22.0%, with a 12.9% swinging-strike rate to match. The expected ERA has also been stepping down across the sample, which is the encouraging wrinkle here rather than a reason to move. The body of work is league average and the underlying numbers say that is the level. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.4%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~25.3% career norm
  • Walk %10.2%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.98)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.4%
45.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
463 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
463 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
748 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
3.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —
748 / 200 TBF
ERA3.73
3.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
178.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.4%
norm27.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
748 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
norm10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
748 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
.272*
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
463 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
748 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
748 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
97.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
2997 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.4%→27.0%signal0 K — K% 27.4% (signal) tempered to career ~25.3% → projected 27.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98signal3.98 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.98 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.98 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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