MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Taj Bradley
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Taj Bradley

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 14ERA 3.92WHIP 1.30W 1–2SV 0

Taj Bradley is a hold — average run prevention, nothing unstable.

His expected ERA is 3.92 — a touch below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced 675 batters, past the 200 batters where that number becomes reliable. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the season, so the skill is tilting the right way. He misses bats at 27.3%, a real margin above the league's 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 12.8% backs it up. The counterweight is command: a 10.1% walk rate, two points above league, and contact quality allowed that sits close to average. The strikeouts and the walks roughly cancel. Nothing here is unstable enough to move the line hard either way. Hold. 14 K and a 3.92 ERA rest of the way makes him a streaming-only arm in deep leagues — hold, but no must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.3%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~25.3% career norm
  • Walk %10.1%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.1%
45.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
419 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
419 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
675 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
3.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
675 / 200 TBF
ERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
159.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
norm27.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
675 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
675 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
419 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
675 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
675 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
2701 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→26.8%signal14 K — K% 27.3% (signal) tempered to career ~25.3% → projected 26.8% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.92signal3.92 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.92 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop14 K ROS, 3.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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