MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Tyler Zuber

MIA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0

Zuber is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm

His ERA is 5.67, but the arm underneath it is fine. His expected ERA is 3.81, 0.29 below league average, and the fastball is sitting at 95.5 mph, above league and stepping up across the sample. The number bloating the ERA is his BABIP-against: .327, 32 points above league average, on 120 balls in play. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, so that gap is luck and the surface is a lie. He strikes out 24% of batters, above league, and walks 6.3%, below it — the command backs the velocity. He gives up more hard contact than league average, which is the one thing to watch. But the gap between the ERA and the expected ERA is not skill. Buy low. The 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP that follows is why the dip is worth a deep-league flier — a hold with a buy-low window.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.3%—−8.9% ▼vs his ~15.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.2%
44.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 200 TBF
ERA5.67
5.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.57vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
norm24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
175 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −8.9% ▼
175 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.327
.327*
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
175 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
175 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
694 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→24.4%signal0 K — K% 24.0% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 24.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.81 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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