MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Tyler Zuber

MIA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.330 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.84
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–5

Zuber is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding a real arm.

His ERA is 4.28, and that number is carrying bad luck that will not last. His BABIP-against is .330 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 98, so that gap is noise, not a signal about his pitching. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 3.49, well below the league average of 4.1. The underlying skill backs it up: he strikes out 25.5% of batters, above the league average of 22%, and his fastball velocity is 95.4 mph and climbing across the sample. The stuff is real; the surface line is not. Buy low. With 5 K and a 3.70 ERA ROS, he's a deep-league buy-low — the dip is priced in, not the skill.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.5%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.330 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
98 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
98 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
xERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
ERA4.28
4.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.5%
norm25.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
145 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −9.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~15.2% norm — expect it to rise.
145 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.330
.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
98 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
30.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
575 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.5%→25.1%signal5 K — K% 25.5% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 25.1% over ~3 remaining IP.
xERA 3.49noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.49 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 5.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-5 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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