MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Hunter Dobbins

STL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.95); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 9ERA 3.95WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Dobbins is a hold — league average, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected ERA is 3.95 against a league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The gap is small, and nothing in his profile is pulling it in either direction. He strikes out 22.5% of batters, right at league average, and his walk rate of 10.4% is a touch above the league's 8.0% but stable at his sample. His contact quality allowed is ordinary: 39.2% hard-hit and 7.2% barrels, both near league. The one mild positive is the trend — his xERA has stepped down across the sample. But a trend toward average is still average. There is no luck to give back and no skill to chase here. Hold. With 9 K and a 3.95 ERA ROS, that's a drop-tier drag — hold the status quo, not a roster asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.5%—+3.4% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
  • Walk %10.4%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA3.67
3.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +3.4% ▲
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
932 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→20.9%signal9 K — K% 22.5% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 20.9% over ~10 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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