MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Hunter Dobbins

STL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.95); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Dobbins is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath

His xERA is 3.95, fractionally better than the 4.10 league average, and he has faced 231 batters — past the 200-batter mark where the number becomes reliable. His xwOBA allowed of .306 is close to the .315 league average, and his contact allowed tracks the league too: a 39.2% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and a 7.2% barrel rate against 8.0%. The one flag is his walk rate at 10.4%, two and a half points above league, and he has thrown enough batters for that to be a real trait rather than noise — but it is the only crack. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the right direction. Take the strikeouts and the average contact at face value; there is no mirage to short and no bargain to chase. Hold. 0 K and a 3.95 ERA is a drop-tier hold — no strikeouts to stream and a 1.39 WHIP to boot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.5%—+3.4% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
  • Walk %10.4%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA3.67
3.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +3.4% ▲
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
932 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→20.9%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 20.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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