week 18
this weekHOLD
last week—
Hunter Dobbins
data as of July 23, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.14); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 32ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Dobbins is a hold — league-average skills, no clear edge.
ROS projects K 8 YTD → 32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.2%—+5.1% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.14)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
xERA5.14
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.04vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
22.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +5.1% ▲
95 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
62 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
398 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→20.7%signal32 K — K% 24.2% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 20.7% over ~38 remaining…
xERA 5.14noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.14 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 8 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop32 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.