MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—

Nick Frasso

COL·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.355 elevated and unstable, the 6.10 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Frasso is a hold — the ERA is ugly but the panic is overdone.

His ERA sits at 6.10, and that number is doing more damage than his pitching. His BABIP-against is .355, 60 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 66. That gap is luck, not a skill problem. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.50, four-tenths of a run above the league average of 4.10. That is the level the poor ERA regresses to — below average, but nowhere near the disaster the surface line suggests. His strikeout rate is 21.9%, right at league average, and he holds above-average velocity at 95.5 mph. Limited data here: this call rests on a small early sample, so neither buy nor sell is justified. Hold. 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league hold, no waiver move needed.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.355 elevated and unstable — the 6.10 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 TBF
xERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 TBF
ERA6.10
6.10*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.00vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.9%
21.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
96 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.355
.355*
lg avg .295 ▲+.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
96 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
96 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
376 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.9%→22.3%signal0 K — K% 21.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 22.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.50noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.50 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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