MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Shota Imanaga
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Shota Imanaga

CHC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.81); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.81WHIP 1.10W 0–0SV 0

Imanaga is a hold — steady skill, no luck to sell either way.

His expected ERA is 3.81, sitting a touch under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 706 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no BABIP story to sell or buy here; the run prevention tracks the skill. What he does well is real and stable: a 24.6% strikeout rate above league, a 5.2% walk rate far below it, a swinging-strike rate of 15.5%, and a chase rate of 35.4% that all clear the bar. The contact he allows is mixed — a 9.8% barrel rate above league but a 36.9% hard-hit rate below it, with an expected wOBA allowed of .301 that lands just under the .315 mark. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which nudges this toward the good side without tipping it into a buy. The profile is above average and the sample backs it up, but not by a wide enough margin to call this an edge. Hold. At 0 K / 3.81 ERA / 1.10 WHIP, this is a deep-league hold only — a real ratio floor, but no strikeout window.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.6%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~23.3% career norm
  • Walk %5.2%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.81)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
488 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
488 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
706 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —
706 / 200 TBF
ERA3.77
3.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.6%
norm24.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
706 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.2%
norm5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
706 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
488 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
706 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
706 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
2810 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.6%→24.3%signal0 K — K% 24.6% (signal) tempered to career ~23.3% → projected 24.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81signal3.81 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.81 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.2% + contactsignal1.10 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.10 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.81 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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