MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Shota Imanaga
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Shota Imanaga

CHC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.81); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.81WHIP 1.13W 0–1SV 0

Imanaga is a hold — his expected ERA sits right at league average.

His xERA is 3.81, a hair below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 637 batters — well past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. That is the whole verdict: a pitcher who prevents runs at roughly the league rate, with nothing unstable propping up the line. The supporting profile is unremarkable for better or worse. His expected wOBA allowed of .302 is close to league average, his strikeout rate is 23.9% against a 22.0% mark, and his walk rate of 5.5% actually beats league. Even his contact allowed bends both ways: a barrel rate of 9.7% is slightly worse than average while hard-hit allowed of 36.7% is slightly better. His expected ERA has stepped down across the sample, but not far enough to call it a trend. There is no luck to give back and no skill to buy. Hold. 13 K and a 3.81 ERA rest-of-season is a deep-league hold, not a stash — no action needed here.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.5%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %23.9%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~23.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.81)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.7%
36.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
444 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
444 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
637 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —
637 / 200 TBF
ERA3.92
3.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
norm23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
637 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
637 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
444 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
637 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
637 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
2507 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.9%→23.8%signal13 K — K% 23.9% (signal) tempered to career ~23.3% → projected 23.8% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.81signal3.81 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.81 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.81 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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