week 20
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Julian Garcia
data as of August 9, 2026·week 20
flipped from SELL-HIGH on August 9, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.91); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Garcia is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.91)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.266
lg avg .315 ▼−.049vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 TBF
xERA2.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 TBF
ERA2.74
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
23 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
88 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.137
lg avg .295 ▼−.158vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
88 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
88 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
363 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→24.8%signal26 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.8% over ~15 remainin…
xERA 2.91noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.91 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.