MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Julian Garcia

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.96); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Garcia is a hold — league-average skill, limited data, no edge.

ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.96)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.2%
4.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 200 TBF
xERA2.96
2.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.14vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
22.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
179 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
179 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.198
.198*
lg avg .295 ▼−.097vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
179 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.9%
29.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
179 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
712 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→23.1%signal0 K — K% 22.9% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 23.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.96noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.96 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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