Is Erick Fedde a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is Erick Fedde's rest-of-season outlook?

16% strikeouts can't sustain a 3.83 ERA over 4.79 xERA

week 31

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekSELL

Erick Fedde

CWS·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026

Sell High luck-free xERA 4.79 is 0.96 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95

ROSK 0ERA 4.55WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0

Fedde is a sell-high — his ERA is running on luck.

His ERA of 3.83 is below the league average of 4.10, but the number holding it there is his BABIP-against. At .272, it sits 23 points under the league average of .295, and that figure is pure noise at 449 balls in play — BABIP-against needs around 800 to become reliable. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 4.79, nearly a full run higher than the ERA shows, and the gap is getting wider as the sample grows. There is no strikeout foundation to lean on either: he fans 16.3% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his swing-and-miss rate of 7.7% is three points under league. That is a thin margin for a pitcher whose surface line is doing the work. Sell high while the ERA still reads like an asset. Regression says 0 K / 4.55 ERA / 1.37 WHIP, so sell high — this is a waiver-zone drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %16.3%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~17.3% career norm
Walk %8.6%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.79 is 0.96 above the ERA — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —

449 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed8.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —

449 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.334

lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —

606 / 200 TBF

xERA4.79

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —

606 / 200 TBF

ERA3.83

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

141 / 200 IP

Strikeout %16.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

606 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.7% ▼

606 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.272

lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

449 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

606 / 60 TBF

Chase %24.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —

606 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —

2413 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 16.3%→16.6%signal0 K — K% 16.3% (signal) held to career ~17.3% → projected 16.6% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.79signal4.55 ERA — xERA 4.79 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.

BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.55 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons