MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Erick Fedde
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Erick Fedde

CWS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 4.61 +0.51 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.med 0.70
ROSK 36ERA 4.43WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0

Fedde is a sell — no skill, no luck, just below league.

His expected ERA is 4.61, half a run above league average, and the sample is past where that number becomes reliable. His strikeout rate is 15.4% — well below the 22% league average and below his own 17.3% career baseline — and it has been stepping down over the sample. Without the punchouts, the ceiling is capped. His walk rate and contact-quality measures are middling: hard-hit rate allowed is 39.3% (near league average), barrel rate is 6.9% (slightly below league), and fastball velocity is right at 94 mph. There is no luck story to fall back on; the BABIP-against is not extreme and the ERA tracks near the xERA. This is the level he's at. Sell. 36 K at 4.43 ERA and 1.41 WHIP is a streaming-only asset at best — drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.4%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~17.3% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.61 +0.51 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
290 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
290 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
.331*
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
xERA4.61
4.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.51vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.4%
norm15.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
390 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
390 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
290 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.9%
23.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1530 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.4%→16.1%signal36 K — K% 15.4% (signal) lifted to career ~17.3% → projected 16.1% over ~54 remaining IP.
xERA 4.61signal4.43 ERA — xERA 4.61 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop36 K ROS, 4.43 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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