week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL
Erick Fedde
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.63 is 0.63 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 4.44WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0
Fedde is a sell-high — his ERA rests on an unsustainable BABIP.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.3%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~17.3% career norm
- Walk %8.5%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 0.63 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
410 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
410 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
xERA4.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
ERA4.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
128.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
552 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
552 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
410 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2179 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→16.6%signal8 K — K% 16.3% (signal) held to career ~17.3% → projected 16.6% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.63signal4.44 ERA — xERA 4.63 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop8 K ROS, 4.44 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.