Rest of Season Projection
ErickCategoryTyler
61K →94
4.43ERA →4.05
1.41WHIP →1.38
0–0W →1–2
0SV0
Current Season
ErickCategoryTyler
34K →57
5.40ERA ←6.04
1.48WHIP ←1.54
0W →1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Erick Fedde
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.61 +0.51 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Erick Fedde: 62 K / 4.43 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).