Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryTyler
98K ←94
4.11ERA →4.05
1.41WHIP →1.38
2–4W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
LuisCategoryTyler
65K ←57
4.16ERA ←6.04
1.47WHIP ←1.54
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Severino
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.11)
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Luis Severino: 99 K / 4.10 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).