MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luis Severino
week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—

Luis Severino

ATH·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.11); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 98ERA 4.11WHIP 1.41W 2–4SV 0

Severino is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to exploit.

His expected ERA is 4.11, essentially league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His other skill metrics sit right around league norms: strikeout rate 24.0%, walk rate 11.4% (a tick high), xwOBA allowed .318, hard-hit rate 38.7%, and barrel rate 8.7%. None of these numbers are far from average, and there is no unstable luck stat pulling his surface line in either direction — there is no buy or sell story here. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. If you own him, he is a replaceable arm. If you do not, there is no edge. Hold. 98 K, 4.11 ERA, 1.41 WHIP — a deep-league hold, not a priority on shallow wires.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %11.4%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.0%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~23.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.11)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
xERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
4.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
norm24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
271 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
norm11.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
.321*
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
173 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→24.0%signal98 K — K% 24.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.9% → projected 24.0% over ~94 remaining…
xERA 4.11signal4.11 ERA — xERA 4.11 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep98 K ROS, 4.11 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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