week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Luis Severino
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.24); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 49ERA 4.19WHIP 1.41W 1–2SV 0
Severino is a hold — league-average skill, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 65 YTD → 49 ROS, ERA 4.16 YTD → 4.19 ROS, WHIP 1.47 YTD → 1.41 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.4%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm
- Strikeout %24.0%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~23.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.24)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
xERA4.24
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
271 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
1086 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→24.0%signal49 K — K% 24.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.9% → projected 24.0% over ~48 remaining…
xERA 4.24signal4.19 ERA — xERA 4.24 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 63 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop49 K ROS, 4.19 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.