Rest of Season Projection
JRCategoryTyler
65K →94
4.13ERA →4.05
1.32WHIP ←1.38
2–4W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
JRCategoryTyler
21K →57
4.56ERA ←6.04
1.44WHIP ←1.54
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
JR Ritchie
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.71)
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
JR Ritchie: 66 K / 4.13 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).