week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
JR Ritchie
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.71); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 65ERA 4.13WHIP 1.32W 2–4SV 0
Ritchie is a hold — league average, small sample, no edge.
ROS projects K 21 YTD → 65 ROS, ERA 4.56 YTD → 4.13 ROS, WHIP 1.44 YTD → 1.32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.71)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 200 TBF
xERA4.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.61vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 200 TBF
ERA4.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
25.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
114 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.1%signal65 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 19.1% over ~76 remaining IP.
xERA 4.71noise4.13 ERA — xERA 4.71 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 4.10 at 26 IP.
BB% 14.0% + contactnoise1.32 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.66 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop65 K ROS, 4.13 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.