week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Will Dion
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0
Dion is a buy — the run prevention is earned, not borrowed.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
ERA3.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
201 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
201 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.9 mphvs his norm —
792 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.4%→26.7%signal0 K — K% 27.4% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 26.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.