week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Carson Seymour
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (6.68); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Seymour is a hold — stable, average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 1 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~15.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.68)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.385
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
xERA6.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.58vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
ERA4.85
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
134 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +3.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.2% norm — expect it to fall.
134 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
510 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.7%→15.8%signal0 K — K% 15.7% (signal) held to career ~15.8% → projected 15.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.68noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.68 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 3 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.63 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.