MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 5, 2026
week 19
this weekHOLD
last week—

Sean Sullivan

COL·P
data as of August 5, 2026·week 19
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.367 elevated and unstable, the 8.87 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.77 is +0.67 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 20ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Sullivan is a hold — skill is below league, luck inflated the ERA

The 8.87 ERA looks like a disaster, but it's not. His BABIP-against is .367, 72 points above the league average of .295 — and that gap is noise, since BABIP-against needs 800 balls in play to stabilize and he has 84. Strip away the bad luck and his expected ERA is 4.77, still almost a run above league. The real ceiling is capped by a strikeout rate of 14%, well below the league's 22%, and it's been trending down. His contact allowed is actually decent — hard-hit rate 34.5% versus the league's 40% — but he doesn't miss bats (swing-and-miss 7.7% against 11%). The middle ground is real: the ERA is lying, but the skill isn't there to buy. Hold.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.367 elevated and unstable — the 8.87 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.77 is +0.67 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
.335*
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
4.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 200 TBF
ERA8.87
8.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.0%
14.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm —
114 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.367
.367*
lg avg .295 ▲+.072vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.6 mph
87.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.4 mphvs his norm —
412 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.0%→15.6%signal20 K — K% 14.0% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 15.6% over ~26 remaining IP.
xERA 4.77noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 3 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop20 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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