week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Kevin Gausman
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Gausman is a buy — his skill is real and trending down.
His expected ERA is 3.45, 0.65 below the league average of 4.10, and the sample of 280 batters faced is past the point where xERA becomes reliable. His actual ERA is not available, but the driver — xERA — is the number to trust, and it has been stepping down across the sample, meaning his run-prevention skill is tightening. He suppresses hard contact: his hard-hit rate allowed is 35.3%, nearly five points below league average, with a barrel rate matching the average. He walks just 4.3% of batters, roughly half the league rate, and his strikeout rate is above average at 23.6%. Every skill metric supports the xERA. This is a pitcher in control of his outcomes. Buy.
Buy
high0.79
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.45, 0.65 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 200 TBF
xERA3.45
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97too early to trust
NOISE69 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002too early to trust
NOISE201 / 800 BIP