MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Gausman
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY

Kevin Gausman

CHC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.03 sits 0.07 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.315 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.74
ROSK 0ERA 4.03WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Gausman is a buy-low — the ERA hides a league-average arm.

His ERA is 4.51, but the number underneath is 4.03 xERA, which is a hair below the league average of 4.10. That is the arm you are buying. The thing inflating the surface line is BABIP-against — .315 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 518, so that gap is luck, not a change in stuff. His peripherals back the same read: 24.5% strikeouts, 6.3% walks, 13.9% swinging strikes, 35% chase, all better than league. His contact allowed is ordinary — 40% hard-hit, 7.7% barrels — but ordinary is enough. Note that both the xERA and the fastball velo are stepping down across the sample, so the margin is thin. Buy low. The 4.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are the buy-low window — a drop-tier arm with a thin margin, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.3%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~6.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.5%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~24.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.03 sits 0.07 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.315 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
40.0%*
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
518 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
518 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
750 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
750 / 200 TBF
ERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
norm24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
750 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
750 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.315
.315*
lg avg .295 ▲+.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
518 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
13.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
750 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.0%
35.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
750 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
93.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
3003 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→24.5%signal0 K — K% 24.5% (signal) tempered to career ~24.4% → projected 24.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal4.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.308 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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