MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Gausman
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Kevin Gausman

TOR·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.85); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 57ERA 3.85WHIP 1.25W 2–5SV 0

Gausman is a hold — stable, league-average, nothing to chase.

His expected ERA of 3.85 is right in line with league average and has been ticking down as the sample builds — a good sign that the 470 batters faced are producing a reliable read. His actual ERA may bounce around, but the underlying metrics are steady: strikeouts (24.7%) and walks (6.8%) are both better than league average, while allowed hard-hit rate (40.2%) and barrel rate (8.7%) are essentially at the mean. His chase rate (34.4%) is elevated, which explains the solid whiff numbers, but the overall contact quality allowed is unremarkable. There is no luck stat inflating or deflating his line — nothing is extreme enough to buy or sell. If you own him, he is a solid back-end arm. If you don't, there is nothing here to trade on. Hold. 57 K and a 3.85 ERA make him a deep-league hold — no reason to cut, no reason to move.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.7%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~24.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.85)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
321 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
321 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
470 / 200 TBF
xERA3.85
3.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.25vs his norm —
470 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
4.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
112.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
norm24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
470 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
470 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
.298*
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
321 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
13.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
470 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
470 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
1858 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→24.6%signal57 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to career ~24.4% → projected 24.6% over ~59 remaining…
xERA 3.85signal3.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep57 K ROS, 3.85 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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