MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Gausman
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Kevin Gausman

CHC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.89WHIP 1.27W 0–1SV 0

Gausman is a hold — near-average skill, no luck driving the line.

His xERA is 3.89, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters that the number is reliable. Nothing underneath it is unstable. His expected wOBA allowed is .305, ten points below league, and his contact quality allowed tracks right with it: a 39.3% hard-hit rate and 7.2% barrels, both essentially league average. The strikeout and walk rates back up the same story — he strikes out 24.2% of batters and walks 6.4%, slightly better than league on both sides. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, but not far enough to call it a skill jump. There is no suppressed BABIP-against propping up the ERA and no inflated one dragging it down. This is the level. Hold. 13 K and a 3.89 ERA make him droppable in most formats — hold only as deep-league streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.2%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~24.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
473 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
473 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
683 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
683 / 200 TBF
ERA4.38
4.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
162.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
norm24.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
683 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
683 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
.312*
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
473 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
683 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
683 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
2714 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→24.3%signal13 K — K% 24.2% (signal) held to career ~24.4% → projected 24.3% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 3.89 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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