MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Taylor Clarke
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Taylor Clarke

AZ·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.193 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.42 is 1.83 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 13ERA 3.73WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0

Clarke is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating his ERA.

His ERA is 2.59, but that number is being held down by a .193 BABIP-against — 102 points below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs roughly 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has 124. The gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.42 — nearly two runs higher — and xERA is already past the midpoint of its stabilization threshold. His 14.6% strikeout rate is stable and well below the league average of 22%, which limits his ceiling even before the luck runs out. His career strikeout rate is 20.9%, so the current rate is a step down, not a step forward. The surface line is a mirage; the underlying numbers point to regression. Sell high. 13 K and inflated ratios won't hold — trade the deep-bench asset while this window is open.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %14.6%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.193 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.42 is 1.83 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.7%
34.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
124 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
158 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
4.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
158 / 200 TBF
ERA2.59
2.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
41.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.6%
norm14.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
158 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
norm5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −2.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.2% norm — expect it to rise.
158 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.193
.193*
lg avg .295 ▼−.102vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
124 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
158 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
158 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
603 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.6%→18.1%signal13 K — K% 14.6% (signal) lifted to career ~20.9% → projected 18.1% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42noise3.73 ERA — xERA 4.42 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 5.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups