Taylor Clarke
Clarke is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His ERA is 2.96, but the number beneath it is his BABIP-against: .241, 54 points below the league average of .295. That gap is luck, not skill — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 225. His expected ERA is 4.42, a run and a half above the ERA on the scoreboard, and that expected mark is stepping up across the sample. The strikeout rate is the other problem: 15.6%, well below the 22% league average and below his own 20.9% career mark, and it is trending down. A pitcher with a strikeout rate that low has little room to absorb a regression in balls in play. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the skill is not. Sell high. The ROS line reads 0 K / 4.17 ERA / 1.25 WHIP — a deep-league sell, not a hold; move the inflated ERA while the window is open.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.6%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm
- Walk %4.9%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.42 is 1.46 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.