week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Taylor Clarke
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Clarke is a sell-high — his BABIP is an outlier.
His ERA sits at 1.80, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The key driver of that ERA is a BABIP-against of .176 — more than 100 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 76. That gap is pure luck, not skill. Strip out that good fortune and his expected ERA is 2.91, which is still below league average, but the difference between the two numbers is regression waiting to happen. His strikeout rate is just 12.9%, well below the 22% league average, and it has been trending down. There is no elite stuff to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. Sell high while the market still sees the 1.80 ERA.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.176 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.91 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043too early to trust
NOISE93 / 200 TBF
xERA2.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19too early to trust
NOISE93 / 200 TBF
ERA1.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.30too early to trust
NOISE25 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL93 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%too early to trust
NOISE93 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.176
lg avg .295 ▼−.119too early to trust
NOISE76 / 800 BIP