week 25
this weekHOLD
last week—
Connor Thomas
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.46); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Thomas is a hold — league average, with a low strikeout ceiling.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 5 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.46)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 TBF
xERA5.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.36vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 TBF
ERA10.34
lg avg 4.10 ▲+6.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
15.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
79 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.364
lg avg .295 ▲+.069vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
273 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.9%→15.9%signal5 K — K% 13.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 15.9% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 5.46noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.46 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.