week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Connor Thomas
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Thomas is a hold — league-average arm, capped strikeout rate
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.51)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 200 TBF
ERA7.01
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.91vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
25.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
118 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
118 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
118 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
418 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.3%→17.0%signal0 K — K% 15.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 17.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.