week 25
this weekHOLD
last week—
Hunter Greene
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, the 6.83 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.47 is +0.37 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Greene is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is below league.
ROS projects K 7 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~30.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — the 6.83 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.47 is +0.37 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA4.47
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.37vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA6.83
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.73vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.8% norm — expect it to rise.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
456 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→29.0%signal20 K — K% 27.3% (signal) lifted to career ~30.0% → projected 29.0% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 4.47noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.47 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 3 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop20 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.