MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Hunter Greene

CIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, the 6.83 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.51 is +0.41 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Greene is a hold — the ERA overstates the damage, the skill still trails

A .333 BABIP-against is doing most of the work behind that 6.83 ERA, and it is the wrong number to trust: BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 79. The contact he is allowing is genuinely mixed — a 46.8% hard-hit rate against a 40.0% league average, but only 5.1% barrels against 8.0%. The stuff is loud in a way that should keep him in the conversation — 98.3 mph average fastball, 27.3% strikeouts, and a 14.5% swinging-strike rate, all samples past their stabilization points. The problem is the level he regresses toward: expected ERA of 4.51 sits .41 above the 4.1 league average, and that sample is still short of where it can be trusted. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Do not sell into the panic on the ERA, and do not buy the velocity as if it pays off in runs. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.3%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~30.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — the 6.83 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.51 is +0.41 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.8%
46.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA6.83
6.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.73vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
norm27.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.8% norm — expect it to rise.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
98.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
456 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→29.0%signal0 K — K% 27.3% (signal) lifted to career ~30.0% → projected 29.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 3 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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