MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Pfaadt
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.75, 0.35 below league, production is earned; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 8ERA 3.73WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0

Pfaadt is a buy — the contact suppression is real and earned.

His expected ERA is 3.75, 0.35 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The skill underneath is contact suppression: he allows a 34% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%, and his xwOBA allowed is .300, below the .315 league mark. His walk rate is 6%, below league, so he is not giving back the value with free passes. The catch is his strikeout rate — 16%, well below his 21.6% career baseline and still stepping down, which caps how high this can go. He is not missing bats, but he is limiting damage on contact. Buy. 8 K and a 3.73 ERA is a deep-league asset, not a headline arm — but with contact suppression this real, acquire now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.0%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %6.0%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.75, 0.35 below league — production is earned
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
371 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
371 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
believable since Jul 7.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
482 / 200 TBF
xERA3.75
3.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.35vs his norm —
482 / 200 TBF
ERA3.53
3.53*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.57vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
117.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.0%
norm16.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm −5.6% ▼
482 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
482 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
371 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
482 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
482 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
1764 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.0%→17.6%signal8 K — K% 16.0% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 17.6% over ~8 remaining IP.
xERA 3.75signal3.73 ERA — xERA 3.75 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 6.0% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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