MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Pfaadt
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65
ROSK 32ERA 4.17WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Pfaadt is a sell — his xERA is above league with no luck story.

His expected ERA is 4.42, which is 0.32 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 231 batters — well past the point where xERA becomes reliable. His actual ERA might look similar, but there is no BABIP-against luck pulling it down. His strikeout rate is 17.7%, well below the league average of 22%, and his walk rate is near average, so he isn't missing bats or limiting free passes. His barrel rate allowed is 10.1%, above league average, and his hard-hit rate at 38.5% is only slightly below average. His xwOBA allowed of .325 is 10 points above league. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not down — the trend is wrong direction. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he's at. Sell. His 32 K with a 4.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP caps the damage — a drop in standard leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.7%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
38.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
believable since Jul 7.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
4.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA4.70
4.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.60vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
53.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
norm17.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.280
.280*
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
93.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
842 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.5%signal32 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 19.5% over ~36 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42signal4.17 ERA — xERA 4.42 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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