week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brandon Pfaadt
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0
Pfaadt is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable behind it.
ROS projects K 30 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 5.59 YTD → 3.84 ROS, WHIP 1.41 YTD → 1.27 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.7%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %5.7%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
430 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
430 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
562 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
562 / 200 TBF
ERA3.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
136 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
562 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
562 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
430 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
562 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
562 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
2033 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.7%→18.0%signal0 K — K% 16.7% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 18.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.84 ERA — xERA 3.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.84 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.