week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Edwin Díaz
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.469 elevated and unstable, the 9.17 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.82 is +0.72 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Diaz is a hold — the panic is overblown, the skill is nothing special.
ROS projects K 10 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.0%—−10.7% ▼vs his ~39.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.469 elevated and unstable — the 9.17 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.82 is +0.72 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
ERA9.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+5.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm −10.7% ▼
93 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +3.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.8% norm — expect it to fall.
93 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.469
lg avg .295 ▲+.174vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
384 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.0%→36.3%signal0 K — K% 29.0% (signal) lifted to career ~39.7% → projected 36.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 6 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.