week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Michael Soroka
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.12); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.11WHIP 1.20W 0–0SV 0
Soroka is a hold — the profile is average and nothing is moving
ROS projects K 60 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 3.25 YTD → 4.11 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.1%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~22.0% career norm
- Walk %6.1%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
323 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
323 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
473 / 200 TBF
xERA4.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —
473 / 200 TBF
ERA3.41
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
473 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
473 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.280
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
323 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
473 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
473 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
1839 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to career ~22.0% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.12signal4.11 ERA — xERA 4.12 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 61 IP.
BB% 6.1% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 4.11 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.