Is Michael Soroka a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Michael Soroka's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

week 25

this weekHOLD

last weekHOLD

Michael Soroka

AZ·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.29); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60

ROSK 12ERA 4.22WHIP 1.25W 1–2SV 0

Soroka is a hold — league average, nothing moving either way.

His expected ERA is 4.29, sitting right on the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .319 against a league mark of .315 — the same story from a different angle. Nothing underneath him is unstable: he strikes out 23% of batters and walks 6.1%, both close to league and past the point where those rates settle. One note: his xERA has stepped up across the sample, so the number is drifting in the wrong direction rather than holding flat, but it has not moved far enough to change the call. There is no luck stat propping up the surface and no skill gap to attack. Hold. 12 K and a 4.22 ERA is a drag — drop him; Soroka's a streaming-only arm, not a hold you carry.

VS His Norm

Walk %6.1%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
Strikeout %23.0%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~22.0% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.29)

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed33.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —

274 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed8.0%

lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —

274 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.319

lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —

395 / 200 TBF

xERA4.29

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.19vs his norm —

395 / 200 TBF

ERA3.40

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.70vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

95.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %23.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +1.0% ▲

395 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −1.6% ▼

395 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.303

lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

274 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —

395 / 60 TBF

Chase %33.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —

395 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.5 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —

1531 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 23.0%→22.7%signal12 K — K% 23.0% (signal) tempered to career ~22.0% → projected 22.7% over ~13 remaining…

xERA 4.29signal4.22 ERA — xERA 4.29 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 61 IP.

BB% 6.1% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP.

run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.22 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons