week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Michael Soroka
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.96); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 3.96WHIP 1.19W 4–9SV 0
Soroka is a hold — league-average skills across the board.
ROS projects K 60 YTD → 55 ROS, ERA 3.25 YTD → 3.96 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.1%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %23.7%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~22.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.96)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
232 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
232 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
333 / 200 TBF
xERA3.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.14vs his norm —
333 / 200 TBF
ERA3.07
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
333 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
333 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
232 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
333 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
333 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
1290 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.7%→23.1%signal55 K — K% 23.7% (signal) tempered to career ~22.0% → projected 23.1% over ~57 remaining…
xERA 3.96signal3.96 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.96 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.1% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep55 K ROS, 3.96 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.