MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Williamson

CIN·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.87 is 0.98 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 5.25WHIP 1.52W 0–0SV 0

Williamson is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding a bad profile.

His ERA reads 4.89 and the BABIP-against underneath it is .245, 50 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 151, so that gap is luck and the ERA is flattered by it. His expected ERA is 5.87, a full run worse than what the box score shows, and that number has enough batters faced to trust. He strikes out 15.3% of batters, below both the league average and his own 19% career baseline, and that rate has been sliding. A pitcher who misses this few bats has a low ceiling, and the gap between the surface and the skill is the whole story. Sell high. The 0 K / 5.25 ERA / 1.52 WHIP ROS line makes him a drop — cash the inflated price before regression, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.3%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~19.0% career norm
  • Walk %12.6%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.87 is 0.98 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.7%
41.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.365
believable since Sep 23.365*
lg avg .315 ▲+.050vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
xERA5.87
5.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.77vs his norm —
215 / 200 TBF
ERA4.89
4.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
49.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.3%
norm15.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
215 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
norm12.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
215 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.245
.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
215 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.8%
24.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
215 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
831 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.3%→17.1%signal0 K — K% 15.3% (signal) lifted to career ~19.0% → projected 17.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.87signal5.25 ERA — xERA 5.87 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 12.6% + contactsignal1.52 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.63 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.25 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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