week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Brandon Williamson
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.55 is 0.44 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 60ERA 4.28WHIP 1.34W 4–8SV 0
Williamson is a sell-high — his ERA hides the real trouble.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.8%—−4.2% ▼vs his ~19.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.55 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
xERA6.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.45vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
ERA6.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
28 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm −4.2% ▼
128 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +6.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.4% norm — expect it to fall.
128 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.8%→17.4%signal60 K — K% 14.8% (signal) lifted to career ~19.0% → projected 17.4% over ~76 remaining IP.
xERA 6.55noise4.28 ERA — xERA 6.55 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 15.6% + contactnoise1.34 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.83 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role4-8 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop60 K ROS, 4.28 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.