Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryMatt
60K →67
4.28ERA →4.09
1.34WHIP →1.30
4–8W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
BrandonCategoryMatt
19K →22
6.11ERA ←8.49
1.64WHIP ←1.71
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Williamson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.55 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Brandon Williamson: 61 K / 4.28 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).