week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Max Meyer
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.21 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.89WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0
Meyer is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, xERA says so.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.2%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
- Walk %8.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.21 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
293 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
293 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
ERA2.68
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
462 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
462 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
293 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
1789 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→25.3%signal0 K — K% 26.2% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 25.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.89 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.