MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Max Meyer
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Max Meyer

MIA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.86 is 1.18 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 14ERA 3.86WHIP 1.26W 1–1SV 0

Meyer is a sell-high — his 2.68 ERA is running on luck.

His ERA is 2.68, but that number is being held down by a luck stat that cannot hold. His BABIP-against is .263, 32 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 293. That gap is luck. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 3.86 — 1.18 runs above what the box score shows. The gap is the regression coming. His strikeout rate of 26.2% and swinging-strike rate of 13.4% are both above league, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so he is not a bad pitcher. But he is not a 2.68 ERA pitcher. The surface is flattering the skill. Sell high. 14 K and a 3.86 ERA the rest of the way — a drop-tier arm, so cash the sell-high before regression lands.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.2%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %8.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.86 is 1.18 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
42.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
293 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
293 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
.304*
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
xERA3.86
3.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
ERA2.68
2.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
norm26.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
462 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
462 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
293 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
31.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
1789 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→25.3%signal14 K — K% 26.2% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 25.3% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.86signal3.86 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.86 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop14 K ROS, 3.86 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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