week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Max Meyer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.77 is 1.19 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 63ERA 3.77WHIP 1.24W 3–6SV 0
Meyer is a sell-high — his xERA demands regression.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.0%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
- Walk %8.5%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.77 is 1.19 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
285 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
446 / 200 TBF
xERA3.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —
446 / 200 TBF
ERA2.58
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
446 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
446 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
285 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
446 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
446 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
1715 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→25.1%signal63 K — K% 26.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 25.1% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 3.77signal3.77 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.77 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep63 K ROS, 3.77 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.